Analysis: North Korea puts Barack Obama to
the test
Of all the policy conundrums facing President Barack Obama, none quite compares with North Korea.


By David Blair, Diplomatic Editor
Last Updated: 7:33PM BST 26 May 2009
North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il: Analysis: North Korea puts Barack Obama to the test
Under the agreement reached in February 2007, Mr Kim was supposed to give up his atomic arsenal and dismantle his nuclear reactor Photo: AFP/GETTY

Ever since the Clinton administration concluded an agreement in 1994 that was supposed to prevent the Stalinist state from building nuclear weapons, a dismal pattern has been established.

North Korea tramples on the rules of international behaviour, so America bribes the regime with concessions in order to make it stop. North Korea then breaks the deal and behaves even more badly. So America offers more concessions. Then North Korea reneges on the agreement again. And America offers yet more inducements.

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So the circle continues, with Kim Jong-il's regime managing the extraordinary feat of being rewarded for its delinquency. North Korea's first nuclear test in October 2006 was followed by a supposed diplomatic breakthrough the following year.

Under the agreement reached in February 2007, Mr Kim was supposed to give up his atomic arsenal and dismantle his nuclear reactor at Yongbyon in return for fuel, food and North Korea's removal from America's list of state sponsors of terrorism.

Needless to say, Mr Kim broke the deal, neither sacrificing his weapons nor dismantling Yongbyon. But America kept its side of the bargain in a fruitless effort to keep him on the straight and narrow. Last October, North Korea became only the second country after Libya to win removal from the State Department's terrorism list - and unlike Col Gaddafi's regime, Mr Kim did nothing concrete in return.

In familiar fashion, North Korea has simply behaved even more outrageously. Hence Mr Kim's latest nuclear test, combined with yesterday's missile launches.

How does North Korea get away with this? The logical response to Mr Kim's game of seeking rewards for delinquency would be to cripple his country with economic sanctions - or even seek forcible regime change.

But North Korea, with its small nuclear arsenal, is strong enough to make war an inconceivable option. Meanwhile, the country's economy is so weak that imposing effective sanctions would amount to overkill.

China has consistently blocked any tough penalties because it fears that North Korea would simply implode under the pressure of sanctions, sending millions of refugees over the border. In diplomacy, abject weakness can sometimes be a real strength.

So North Korea's unique combination of might and fragility rules out the use of economic or military pressure.

Mr Obama could be forgiven for viewing Iran's nuclear programme as less of a tangled problem. Sanctions have been imposed on Tehran and force has not been ruled out. Mr Obama retains real options for dealing with Iran's intransigence.

But he can find comfort in one thought: North Korea's regime cannot last forever. Mr Kim will eventually die or his ruinous policies will bring about his government's collapse.

In the end, Mr Obama has only one viable option: waiting for North Korea's regime to destroy itself. In the meantime, America and her allies will have to contain Mr Kim's serial delinquency, perhaps by throwing him the occasional bone.